USA-IRAN: Tale of the 2 antagonist FOE

January 10, 2020January 11, 2020 Tietler

USA-Iran relation is the biggest conflict in the modern world, which was started in 1953 and currently distant at their extreme terminals.

US President Donald Trump approved an overnight airstrike in Iraq that killed Iranian Revolutionary Guards Qasem Soleimani on Friday. Soleimani was the second most powerful person in Iran, following Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He was also behind Iran’s growing influence in the region.

The strike came after Kataib Hezbollah army attacked the US Embassy in Iraq on Dec. 31.

Trump issued the airstrike without Congressional approval or authorization of military force against Iran.

Why the US had Qasem Soleimani in its sights?

Soleimani was the mastermind behind the country’s activities across in the Middle East, and its real foreign minister when it came to matters of war and peace.

He had emerged in recent years from the shadows directing covert operations to achieve fame and popularity in Iran, becoming the subject of documentaries, news reports, and even pop songs.

In 2013, former CIA officer John Maguire told that Soleimani was “the single most powerful operative in the Middle East”.

∫ Why are US-Iran relations so poor?

History started in the early 1960s. The sanctions on Iran issued by former President Jimmy Carter in 1979. But significant US involvement dates back to 1953 when the US-drafted a coup to overthrow Iran’s prime minister.

COUP 1953: Democracy to Dictatorship

US and British intelligence agencies choreograph a coup, toppling democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh and restoring power to the Shah, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi. As prime minister, Mossadegh worked to nationalize Iranian oil against British interests, which had exploited the country’s resources for decades. Shah became the head of State. The coup anchored Iran from democracy to that of a dictatorship.

1957: Nuclear cooperation

The US and Iran sign the Cooperation Concerning Civil Uses of Atoms, a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, through the Atoms for Peace program. The program provided Iran with the foundation for its current, highly controversial nuclear program.

1963-1973: Decade of growth

In the aftermath of the coup, the US pours resources into Iran, shoring up its military and political power. Iran enjoys a decade of impressive economic growth in the 1960s and 70s. But the Shah’s autocracy grows as well.

In 1972, US President Richard Nixon visits the Shah to ask him to guarantee US security interests in the region, allowing Iran to buy any weapon system it wants in return. The Shah buys huge quantities of high-tech weaponry.

In the background, anger against the Shah — and the US — is building !!! The Religious Opposition !!!

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini is key to this religious opposition and is sent into forced exile in 1964, and eventually settles in Iraq. But he continues to preach against the Shah and the US; his lessons are smuggled into Iran. The US doesn’t take religious opposition seriously at the time.

1977-1978: Carter’s visit & Black Friday

Carter visits Iran on New Year’s Eve, toasting the Shah and demonstrating how out of touch America is with the realities on the ground. “Iran, because of the great leadership of the Shah, is an island of stability in one of the more troubled areas of the world,” Carter said. “This is a great tribute to you, your Majesty, and to your leadership, and to the respect and the admiration and love which your people give to you.”

Within days, a movement with widespread appeal emerges with Khomeini at its head. Government troops opened fire on demonstrators in Jaleh Square in Tehran. Hundreds of people are killed. The US is distracted by a Camp David summit over the Arab-Israeli War and can do nothing to stop the revolution.

1979: Iranian Revolution

On January 16, 1979, the Shah announces he is leaving Iran to go on vacation. The Iranian people react as if it is the end of his reign.

On February 1, 1979, just weeks after the Shah leaves, Khomeini makes a triumphant return to Iran to a crowd of millions. Within days, revolutionaries are in control of the military, ministries and media. The Islamic Republic of Iran becomes official April 1, following an overwhelmingly popular referendum.

1979-1981: Iran hostage crisis

After a brutal revolution, the US and Khomeini’s pick for prime minister, Medhi Bazargan. But in the fall of 1979, Carter allows the Shah — who is dying of cancer — to enter the US for medical treatment. Though assured it was a humanitarian gesture — not a political one — Iranians who supported the revolution feared a new conspiracy between the US and the Shah.

On Nov. 4, 1979, a mob of students overruns the US embassy in Tehran, taking 66 American diplomats and marines hostage. The students demand the US turn the Shah over for trial and threaten to put hostages on trial.

The final Americans are allowed to return home only on the day of US President Ronald Reagan’s inauguration after 444 days in captivity. Iran becomes a refugee state.

1980-1988: Iran-Iraq War

Iraq, hoping to capitalize on chaos in Iran, starts the war in 1980. The US fears Iranians will be able to defeat Iraq and continue a takeover of the region. The Reagan administration provides Baghdad with intelligence and resources. When Iraq uses chemical weapons against Iran, the US condemns the action but continues to support Saddam Hussein.

The US designates Iran a state sponsor of terrorism and unleashes severe sanctions.

1985-1986: Iran-Contra affair

Despite an arms embargo, Reagan administration officials continue to sell weapons to Iran, allegedly to secure the release of hostages in Lebanon. The revenue from the weapons sales circumvent US Congress to fund Contra guerrillas fighting against the left-wing Sandinista government in Nicaragua in a US effort to stop the spread of socialism in Latin America. The scandal later becomes known as the Iran-Contra affair and Reagan administration officials are charged with lying to Congress about the backdoor efforts to sell weapons to Iran.

2001-2002: 9/11 and the ‘Axis of Evil’

After the terrorist attacks in the US, the USA establishes a back channel with Iran against a mutual enemy: the Taliban. But in 2002, US President George W. Bush includes Iran as part of the “Axis of Evil” in his State of the Union. Later, international inspectors confirm Iran has enriched uranium.

Before 2010, USA succeeds 4 rounds of sanctions against Iran

Stop enriching uranium
Stop exporting weapons
Banking restrictions
Trade and travel restrictions

2009-2013: Obama takes office-upturn in negotiations

US President Barack Obama takes office and tells Iran’s leaders he would extend a hand if they would “unclench their fist” and persuade the West they were not trying to build a nuclear bomb. Britain, France and the United States announce that Iran is building a secret uranium-enrichment site at Fordow, near the city of Qom.

US and Iranian officials begin secret talks, which intensify in 2013, on the nuclear issue.

On Nov. 23, with the groundwork laid by the secret US-Iran talks, Iran and six major powers reach an interim pact called the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) under which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear work in return for limited sanctions relief. The six powers are the United States, Britain, China, France, Germany, and Russia.

2017: Trump administration

US President Donald Trump makes a speech holding Iran responsible for global extremism in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on his first foreign visit since taking office.US President Donald Trump announces he is walking away from the Iran nuclear deal and reimposes crippling sanctions. Trump says the deal did nothing to limit Iran’s ballistic missile program or its regional aggressions.

In April 2019, the US designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a “terrorist organization.”In May, exactly one year after Trump pulls the US out of the Iran nuclear deal.

In December, attacks on US military bases in Iraq kill a US citizen. The US blames an Iranian-backed militia inside Iraq, and fires on its bases in retaliation.

Iranian backed militias protest outside the US Embassy in Baghdad, storming the security post.

Jan. 3, 2020: Commander killed

Trump empowers an airstrike that kills Gen. Qasem Soleimani without congressional approval.

∫ Why is the international community worried about USA-Iran relations

There is a real concern among America’s allies about Trump’s recklessness and unpredictability.

This decision to kill Soleimani was ad-hoc, probably in order for Trump to position himself more firmly as a macho President who stands up against international challengers.

Given that Trump will face election in November of this year, this is a serious concern. Drone strikes as a mechanism to kill state officials is a very grave precedent.

First, directly, as we have seen in the strikes it carried out against US targets in Iraq.
Iranian-backed militias also operate in many countries where the US has strategic interests in the Middle East, including Syria.
We know that the Iranians intend to stop complying with the deal agreed under the Obama administration and under the auspices of the European Union.

∫ What USA-IRAN escalation tensions mean for India

India has a wide range of interests in the Persian Gulf that may be endangered by an escalation of enmities, and increased turmoil.

It will have an effect on India which has made a huge investment in the development of Chabahar port and Farzad B gas oil fields. Indian companies were also allowed to invest in numerous projects in Iran in the Indian currency. Chabahar provides India a link to Afghanistan and the Central Asian nations bypassing Pakistan.

The Saudi peninsula also continues to be an important destination for Indian ex-pats. As per some estimates, there are seven million Indian nationals working in the region, contributing to approximately US$ 40 Billion in transfer receipts into the country.

With oil imports accounting for 84% of India’s energy supply, ensuring that the trade route at the Strait of Hormuz is not disrupted. Any disruption to oil trade via this route is likely to reflect in the dismal performance of India’s stock markets, and result in rising rates of inflation.