Is the caste an important factor in Bihar election ? It is a difficult question that can be asked. But very easy to answer that these things happen in everyone’s life. Hum betiyan aur vote apni hi jati ko dete hain means We give daughter and vote to our own caste. It means vote could not be separated from the caste.

History testifies that Bihar has been at the centre of politics in India for a very long time. Many significant political changes that have taken place in India during the last several decades have had their roots in Bihar. The state was also the epicentre of the anti-Emergency movement of 1975, led by the great socialist leader Jayaprakash Narayan when the Prime Minister Indira Gandhi imposed a national emergency.

Bihar played an important role in bringing about political changes even during the British rule. Mahatma Gandhi began his Indigo movement – Champaran Movement in 1917 against the British in Champaran. The nature of political contest and political representation in North Indian states during the post-Mandal period also had deep roots in Bihar.

Caste Politics

There is a popular saying in India’s politics, ‘Jaati Nahi Jaati’. Meaning that caste never goes out of the election in India. All the party has to do for a Bihar election is to fit perfectly in the caste arithmetic and have some top credible faces. Here we will analyze the caste composition of Bihar and how their votes make or break the Government of Bihar.

A tale of 2015 Election:

Bihar election promised to redefine the conviction, consistency and cohesiveness of political participants. Since there aren’t permanent friends or foes in politics, the Assembly polls will, as usual, drafted political rainbows of various colors and hues. Adversaries of past will become admirers and villains are projected as visionaries.

READ ALSO: Chapter 1: Bihar Election 2020 – Basics

During 2015, the fight was between mighty mavericks. An unstoppable PM Narendra Modi was pitched against the powerful duo of Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar. They were champions of social justice, and both uncrowned caste-and-community royalty. United, they fought and checkmate the Modi juggernaut. Modi magic failed to mesmerize the Bihar electorate, which turned out to be ferociously vocal for local.

2020 Election is different:

The below analysis is based on the permutations and combinations of castes from the point of NDA vs Mahagathbandhan.

If I go with the RJD, the upper castes won’t vote for me. If I go with the BJP, the Muslims won’t vote for me.

OBCs: the largest group

Around 56% population of Bihar belongs to other backward classes. Amongst them, 16% are Yadav OBC and the rest 40% are considered to be Non-Yadav OBC. RJD has a very loyal vote bank of the 16% Yadav OBCs of Bihar. Whereas the Non-Yadav votes are distributed between Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal (United). The Non-Yadav OBC votes continue to prefer the BJP-JDU alliance since 2009 Lok Sabha Elections.

Upper Castes Go with the BJP

Upper castes account for 15% of the population of the entire Bihar. It might be because of the right Hindu ideology, but the upper castes actually give their votes for BJP. Since 1984, these votes have shifted from Congress to BJP and continue to remain so.

For the many past years, the upper caste of India had been completely neglected. In an attempt to create social balance among-st all the caste, the balance shifted too much towards the other side and Upper Castes were completely sidelined. The ideologies of BJP have fascinated the upper caste of India and Bihar Election 2020 will witness a similar trend.

However, we must understand that 16% of Muslim votes in Bihar heavily oppose BJP. Therefore this vote base of BJP can get neutralized in Bihar Election 2020.

Muslims, SC, and STs

Bihar has about 16% Muslim population. Whereas Mahadalits and STs make up 15% of the overall population and Scheduled Tribes are 1.3 percent.

Congress has a traditional vote bank for Bihar Election 2020. The Muslim community is banking much on Congress because of its stand against the Citizenship Amendment Act. BJP does not have much support amongst these categories. However, Nitish Kumar’s JDU gets some support from Dalit and Mahadalit community.

The Mahadalits and Dalits consist of 5% Dusadh, 2.8% Musahars, and others. Now that Manjhi has gone with NDA, 2.8% Musahar votes will go with that alliance.

The NDA vs Mahagathbandhan 

As per the above voting pattern of all these caste communities, it is evident that the current NDA alliance works well for the BJP, JDU, and Manjhi’s HAM. If we take a broader look at the above estimates. BJP has the support of Upper Castes which is 15%. JDU has the support of 26% EBCs and few Dalit voters. BJP and JDU collectively have the support of other Non-Yadav OBCs.

So approximately, the NDA alliance has 48.8% ( +1% or -1 % Dalit) votes of the overall Bihar population. Based on the caste arithmetic, NDA stands at a very good place for Bihar Election 2020.

For the Mahagathbandhan, RJD gets to score 16% Yadav votes. Congress will score 16% of Muslim votes. Some of the Dalit votes as 2% also there. Therefore approximately 34% Bihar population is expected to back the Mahagathbandhan alliance for the Bihar election 2020. The remaining 8-10% of voters of Bihar do not have a fixed affiliation with these parties or with LJP and RLSP and their votes depend on multiple factors.

NDA alliance can turn the remaining 10% voters in its favor by highlighting the welfare schemes, developmental work, Sushan Babu image of Nitish Kumar. Moreover, the 20 Lakh crore package announced by Modi Government is going to be significant for Bihar Election 2020.

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